Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.018410 0.020902 0.023616 0.026792 0.030411 0.034408 0.039160
2025-03-09 0.014627 0.018071 0.022158 0.027372 0.033859 0.041681 0.051853
2025-03-16 0.012220 0.015981 0.020707 0.027100 0.035546 0.046357 0.061306
2025-03-23 0.010951 0.015005 0.020348 0.027930 0.038456 0.052618 0.073225
2025-03-30 0.009423 0.013434 0.018938 0.027076 0.038865 0.055417 0.080588
2025-04-06 0.008356 0.012342 0.018013 0.026712 0.039804 0.058904 0.089130
2025-04-13 0.007306 0.011140 0.016775 0.025712 0.039633 0.060663 0.095165
2025-04-20 0.006885 0.010821 0.016787 0.026551 0.042271 0.066818 0.108510
2025-04-27 0.006479 0.010473 0.016703 0.027206 0.044643 0.072733 0.122018
2025-05-04 0.006155 0.010217 0.016728 0.028016 0.047310 0.079327 0.137264
2025-05-11 0.005664 0.009636 0.016164 0.027780 0.048181 0.082979 0.147792
2025-05-18 0.005273 0.009185 0.015770 0.027781 0.049433 0.087353 0.159971
2025-05-25 0.004840 0.008628 0.015161 0.027376 0.049972 0.090607 0.170616
2025-06-01 0.004596 0.008387 0.015082 0.027912 0.052271 0.097251 0.188321
2025-06-08 0.004258 0.007941 0.014592 0.027638 0.053018 0.101066 0.200939
2025-06-15 0.004107 0.007827 0.014696 0.028485 0.055972 0.109320 0.223172
2025-06-22 0.003748 0.007285 0.013949 0.027614 0.055466 0.110769 0.231680
2025-06-29 0.003485 0.006905 0.013480 0.027242 0.055913 0.114131 0.244478
2025-07-06 0.003172 0.006401 0.012724 0.026222 0.054926 0.114459 0.250783
2025-07-13 0.003090 0.006354 0.012874 0.027078 0.057947 0.123410 0.276906
2025-07-20 0.002992 0.006268 0.012933 0.027746 0.060620 0.131856 0.302775
2025-07-27 0.002915 0.006217 0.013062 0.028573 0.063713 0.141492 0.332394
2025-08-03 0.002745 0.005953 0.012720 0.028332 0.064389 0.145794 0.349878